Big Trouble in Little China Defense Tech asks whether China will soon "have the teeth to chomp down on Taiwan" and concludes that...
Big Trouble in Little China
Defense
Tech asks whether China will soon "have the teeth to chomp down on
Taiwan" and concludes that it will, citing increases in China's amphibious
warfare capability.
the PLA has shifted focus towards amphibious operations for a significant
part of the ground forces ... this has included the reorganisation of two
motorised infantry divisions in the Nanjing and Guangzhou Military Regions
into amphibious infantry divisions and the transfer of another infantry
division to the navy to form a second marine brigade in the late 1990s. ...
round a quarter of all PLA manoeuvre units, which number around 20 divisions
or brigades, plus supporting artillery and air-defence units, have
participated in training exercises for amphibious operations…
The US intelligence community has reported that since 2001, the Chinese
shipbuilding industry has produced 23 new amphibious assault ships and 13
conventional attack submarines. ... The PLA Navy (PLAN) is rapidly
transforming itself from a coastal force into a bluewater naval power with a
force modernisation drive that is unprecedented in the post-Cold War era.
"The range and number of warships the Chinese navy is acquiring can be
compared to the Soviet Union's race to become an ocean-going navy to rival the
US in the 1970s," said a China-based foreign naval attaché.
But stop there a moment. "The PLA Navy (PLAN) is rapidly transforming
itself from a coastal force into a bluewater naval power with a force
modernisation drive that is unprecedented in the post-Cold War era." If
China's strategic goal is to take Taiwan why should it need a Blue Water navy?
Furthermore, why should Taiwan represent any strategic priority at all? The
small island nation poses no credible threat to mainland. The real strategic
center of Chinese interests is the South China sea through which the commercial
and petroleum lifeblood of China flows. According to the Washington
Times, China understands that the principle national security threat facing
it is disruption of sea lanes bringing oil and commerce to its shores.
China believes the U.S. military will disrupt China's energy imports in any
conflict over Taiwan ... Beijing's leaders see access to oil and gas resources
as vital to economic growth and fear that stalled economic growth could cause
instability and ultimately the collapse of their nation of 1.3 billion people.
Energy demand, particularly for oil, will increase sharply in the next 20
years — from 75 million barrels per day last year to 120 million barrels in
2025 -- with Asia consuming 80 percent of the added 45 million barrels, the
report said. Eighty percent of China's oil currently passes through the Strait
of Malacca, and the report states that China believes the sea area is
"controlled by the U.S. Navy." Chinese President Hu Jintao recently
stated that China faces a "Malacca Dilemma" -- the vulnerability of
its oil supply lines from the Middle East and Africa to disruption. Oil-tanker
traffic through the Strait, which is closest to Indonesia, is projected to
grow from 10 million barrels a day in 2002 to 20 million barrels a day in
2020, the report said. Chinese specialists interviewed for the report said the
United States has the military capability to cut off Chinese oil imports and
could "severely cripple" China by blocking its energy supplies.
As the Belmont Club argued in an earlier
post, one USN riposte to a Chinese blockade campaign against Taiwan would be
to shut the oil flowing to the People's Republic at the spigot, through its
control of the Persian Gulf: a counter-blockade. This blue-water threat
represents the true strategic threat to the Chinese commercial lifeline. For
that reason, recent Chinese efforts to build naval intallations ("a string
of pearls") along the route to the Persian Gulf in Cambodia, Rangoon, Burma
and Pakistan and develop its oceangoing navy must be understood as going
beyond its ambitions against Taiwan.
But even if the United States could be persuaded not to intervene
in any dispute with Taiwan, China's peculiar geographic vulnerability to
maritime disruption means that even Taiwan's small submarine force could pose a
major threat. This map
from Global Security underscores how vital the South China Sea is to China's
economy. Virtually all VLCC traffic to China, Japan and South Korea pass through
the Lombok and Malacca Straits. Traffic bound for the cluster
of ports (run your mouse along the Chinese coast and the ports will pop up
as circles) around Guangdong (Hongkong and related ports) can stop 600 km
west-southwest of Taiwan, but traffic bound for the port clusters around
Shanghai must pass east of Taiwan, through the Luzon straits before berthing 600
km due north of Taipei -- right past the Bonins -- including Okinawa. Should
Taiwan respond to a Chinese threat by deploying its Zwaardvis class diesel
electrics along the Bonin littoral, the northern Chinese ports would be
blockadaded. Both the Guangdong and Shanghai ports themselves are well within
range of the 9,000 nautical mile ranged Taiwanese diesel-electrics.
Here is where some military analysts may have it wrong with their scenarios
of a triumphal Chinese descent on a hapless Taiwan. Taiwanese diesel electrics could respond to mainland saber rattling by taking station to the Bonins northeast of Taiwan and would be far better suited to littoral warfare than the nuclear attack boats Beijing is building. Moreover, any combat between Taiwan and China in this area would be exceedingly dangerous,
because it would occur virtually within Japanese territorial waters. China would
have to be very careful in naval operations or risk attacking Japanese fleet
units by accident. Escorting tanker convoys east of Taiwan and through the
Bonins would be a nightmare. In fact, Taiwanese naval action need only be
threatened: any naval confrontation in the South China sea would almost
certainly disrupt commercial and oil traffic not only to China, but to Japan and
Korea as well. If that were not enough, the Taiwanese subs could head south as
well. All Taiwan would need to do is torpedo one large VLCC in the Malacca
straits to block it for months. None of these prospects have been lost on
Taiwanese planners. The Taipei
Times says:
"If Taiwan obtains the eight diesel-powered submarines we propose to
purchase through the US, we will have the capability of blockading China's sea
lanes in South China and East China seas," Minister of National Defense
Lee Jye said yesterday at the legislature. He said the MND assessed that
China will need to import 90 percent of its energy needs by 2020. He said
China currently has 30 days of oil reserves, and that it wants to reach 50
days in 2010 and 90 days in 2020. He said, however, that even if China
achieves that goal, its oil reserves would be insufficient in comparison with
the US' 158-day reserves and Japan's 161-day reserves.
In addition, he said that the MND believes that by the year 2010, China
will need to import 36.29 million tonnes of food, rising to 54.4 million
tonnes in 2020 and 118 million tonnes in 2030. He said China therefore
requires secure sea lanes, which the MND believes is one of China's big
weaknesses should it go to war against Taiwan. Lee said the MND calculated
that in 2020, Taiwan will require at least 10 submarines to patrol waters
around Taiwan, including waters east of Taiwan, the East China Sea and the
South China Sea. He said if China takes military action against Taiwan, the 10
submarines would be able to blockade the sea lanes and attack China's warships
and civilian shipping.
The Taiwanese have done the numbers. They understand the capability of their
boats is limited by their small numbers but know that if China precipitates a
conflict in the South China sea it would run out of energy seventy days before the US and Japan -- though the US will only be inconvenienced because eastbound voyages to the US can be routed through the Torres Straits and the westward
route to the East Coast through the Mozambique Channel and around the Horn of
Africa will remain open. (See page 8 of this
document for a thumbnail chart of world VLCC lanes) One final thought from
the Indian Navy perspective:
the navy last month operationalised its first full-fledged UAV base in
Kochi in Kerala ... four Heron crafts were ordered from Israel.
... The navy plans to induct at least a dozen Israeli UAVs and set up UAV
bases in Port Blair and Lakshwadeep islands as well. In fact, a full-fledged
base in the Andaman islands to monitor the Chinese movements in the seas is
also being planned. China has, during the last decade, shown increasing
eagerness to be present in the Andamans. It has eavesdropping equipment
permanently placed in the Coco Islands.
China is the last nation that will want trouble in the Taiwan Straits.
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