The consequences of having to include the base of the Sunni insurgency in the political process yet get on with the process of building a un...
The consequences of having to include the base of the Sunni insurgency
in the political process yet get on with the process of building a unitary Iraq
were highlighted in this
target="_blank">PBS
Online Newshour transcript (hat tip:
target="_blank">Glenn
Reynolds). On opposite sides of the discussion were Larry Diamond of the
Hoover Institute and Brett McGurk, late of the CPA and one of the men who helped
draft the legal framework under which the elections are taking place.
LARRY DIAMOND: Well, Ray, I think Jeffrey Gettleman had it very well
analyzed when he said that we'll probably see a very high turnout in most of
the Kurdish constituencies and the Shiite constituencies in the South and
probably a very low turnout in most of the Sunni constituencies and
in al-Anbar
Province and Salahadeen Province and elsewhere. And this is going to create an
enormous imbalance in representation among groups in Iraq. And then the
question will be: How do you correct, after the election, for a system in
which the Sunnis may represent 15 to 20 percent of the population but may have
only been able to elect perhaps 3 to 5 percent of the seats in parliament.
BRETT McGURK: I think it's fair to assume that there will be a lower
turnout in some of those Sunni-dominated provinces because of the violence and
intimidation tactics. But I do think it's important to stress and the report
earlier said that the administration is starting to stress the process - but
it's not just the administration. ... And what I tried to explain in an op-ed
in the Washington Post about a week ago is that there are ample
institutional mechanisms in place for inclusion of Sunni groups post election
the way the three-member presidency council will be formed, each member must
receive super majority votes from within the national assembly.
LARRY DIAMOND: I think the fixes that Brett is talking about will be
important but inadequate. ... One of the concerns I think of many Sunni
political forces -- some of them which are clearly democratic and civic-minded
forces -- is that the Sunnis who are now being disenfranchised potentially in
this election be able to choose their own representatives.
McGurk went on to explain that the current electoral process was agreed to by
the UN. But Diamond was not persuaded that the elections would constitute an
adequate framework within which to select representatives who would build the
national framework for Iraq. He plumped for an extra-electoral process, or at
least a supplementary one:
I think there will need to be a national conference or dialogue, Ray, in
which they bring in the wide range of Sunni groups that met in Tikrit late in
December and have formed a coalition and elected a leadership and think about
amending the constitution to provide for supplementary election of some number
of seats either indirectly or directly from the provinces if their proportion
of the turnout is much, much less than in other sections of the country.
But if the fear of a 'Shiite-dominated bloc extending to the Mediterranean'
and the policy need to maintain a unitary Iraq by accommodating the minority
Sunnis is allowed to repeatedly veto the efforts of those who, after all, have
agreed to participate in the American-sponsored process, then the precise thing
that Kissinger and Schultz fear may emerge from the frustrations of the opposite
quarter. The only thing worse than Sunni disaffection is a Shi'ite and Kurdish
belief that they have been betrayed. The storm petrels are already
flying. target="_blank">Reuters
reports:
An Iraqi Arab party based in Kirkuk said on Monday it was boycotting
Jan. 30 polls because thousands of Kurdish refugees would be allowed
to vote,
reigniting a row over the election in the northern city. The United Arab Front
said it would not participate in the national polls and Kirkuk provincial
elections scheduled on the same day because around 70,000 Iraqi Kurds who have
returned to the area in recent months were being allowed to vote in Kirkuk.
...
The question of who should be allowed to vote in Kirkuk, a strategic oil
city with an uneasy ethnic mix of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, has caused bitter
arguments ahead of the polls. Many Kurds regard the city as part of their
territory in northern Iraq. But during his rule Saddam Hussein pursued an
"Arabisation" policy in the city, displacing Kurds and moving
thousands of Arabs there from other parts of Iraq. Kurdish parties had
initially threatened to boycott the polls unless returning Kurdish refugees
were allowed to vote in Kirkuk. They later said they would take part in
the elections after receiving assurances that Kurds could vote there, but that
has angered the city's large Arab and Turkmen communities.
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