2020 The Counterterrorism blog discusses the The NIC 2020 report . NIC stands for National Intelligence Council , an organization affiliat...
2020
The
Counterterrorism blog discusses the The
NIC
2020 report. NIC stands for
National
Intelligence Council, an organization affiliated with the CIA tasked with
providing a semi-independent assessment of events. Their self-described mission
is to: "provide policymakers with the best, unvarnished, and unbiased
information -- regardless of whether analytic judgments conform to US policy."
It is a long horizon piece aimed at identifying the main trends in the world
over the next few years. Its key findings are reproduced verbatim in the matrix
below.
Relative Certainties | Key Uncertainties |
| Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized. | Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.” |
| World economy substantially larger. | Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises. |
| Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. | Extent to which connectivity challenges governments. |
| Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights. | Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly. |
| Aging populations in established powers | Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower. |
| Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand. | Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions |
| Growing power of nonstate actors. | Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors. |
| Political Islam remains a potent force. | Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology. |
| Improved WMD capabilities of some states. | More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons. |
| Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa. | Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes. |
| Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely. | Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources. |
| Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore. | Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas. |
| US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily. | Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge. |
This assessment implies that the Global War on Terror would have happened
eventually with or without September 11 as a result of certain long term and
unavoidable trends emerging in the world. In particular, the weakening of Great
Power rivalry has been accompanied by a corresponding rise in technological
proliferation and the sophistication of nonstate actors, a trend which the
report considers 'relatively certain' to continue over the coming years. The
magnitude of the role of Europe and the 'middle powers' will play in the first
decades of this century are still 'key uncertainties'. What is fairly certain is
that the United States will shape the global response for the next 20 years or
so.
That central fact means the fate of the world will be effectively decided by
Americans in the near term. This further implies that divisions within American
polity -- the debate over the response to terrorism -- or the lack thereof --
will assume an inordinate importance, magnified by its position in the fulcrum
of power. Just as the fate of the planet was effectively decided in Europe
during the 19th century, many of the main trends in the world will be settled
within the boundaries of the fifty states over the coming years. For good or
ill, America will become a cockpit into which global conflicts will converge.
For men of hope and the merchants of evil; for visionaries and as well as
terrorists, nothing -- not even the minarets of Mecca -- will beckon more
naturally than the alabaster cities of the New World.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,
it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness,
it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity,
it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness,
it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,
we had everything before us, we had nothing before us,
we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.
-- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
COMMENTS